Recently, on the Get Blue blog, they posted an analysis of check in data and illustrated how it was strongly correlated with box office success for the weekend of 5/27 to 5/29. 

Here were the top movies by check-ins:

And how they correlated with Box Office Gross (r value of .95):

This is some pretty interesting data, and presentation. In March 2011 (the most recent data I could find quickly) comscore reports that 16.7 million smart phone users utilize check in services.

Of those 16.7 million smartphones that use check-in services, the demographics break down like so:

Essentially: 15,508 18-34 year olds, "checking-in" accurately correlates with weekend box office. 

Let's think about these implications --

Eventually, Checking-in could predict, with some accuracy, how people spend their time and money. But first, we need to answer why people check in, and how. We are starting to begin to answer those questions now. 

But this got me thinking -- I wonder if there are other digital actions that correlate with box office revenue? I bet website traffic does. 

Let's look at traffic to the respective websites of the previously mentioned movies, in the month of May:

The Hangover (9,964 Check-Ins, 86 Million, Visits peak 5/26 - 5/28)

1. A traffic spike over the opening weekend

Kung Fu Panda 2 (7,078 Check-Ins, 47.8 Million, Visits peak 5/23 - 5/24)

1. Traffic spike week before the opening weekend. 

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (3,417 Check-Ins, 39.6 Million, Visits peak 5/19 - 5/21)

1. Traffic spike two days before opening.  

Something Borrowed (2,175 Check-Ins, 1.86 Million, Visits peak 5/05 - 5/06)

1. Traffic spike two days before opening.  

Bridesmaids (1,216 Check-Ins, 9.4 Million, Visits peak 5/12 - 5/13) 

The movies which received the most check-ins from 5/27 to 5/29, and grossed the highest amount, also saw website traffic peak.

Across all the movies, traffic peaked days (Tuesday, Wenesday, or Thursday) before the opening weekend.

So what does all of this mean? 

• The same kind of analysis that was done for these "check-ins" on Get Glue, could probably be done for website traffic, impressions or a variety of other digital quantifications of buzz. 

• To me, the Check-In behavior reflects signficantly more action (these people have spent money to see a movie), but other measurements can predict trends in a similar fashion.

• It is fascinating that such a small subset of the population, sending 26,000 Check-Ins, can accurately represent the the movie going public. 

Wonder if any studios are asking questions like --

Was the drop-off in Check-Ins similar to the drop-off in revenue after opening weekend?

Hmmmm....